International eel symposium, 2003 - Quebec August 11, 2003
Oral Presentation

Using Decision Analysis and Adaptive Management to Determine Research and Management Priorities for American Eel in Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River

Reid, K.B.* Ontario Commercial Fisheries Association, 45 James Street, Blenheim, Ontario, N0P 1A0.
Meisenheimer, P.J.R. 33 Arthur St. N., Guelph, Ontario, Canada. N1E 4T7
Crawford, S.S. Axelrod Institute of Ichthyology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, N1G 2W1.

Presenter email address: kreid AT ciaccess.com

Abstract Text: This study extends an existing life history-based population dynamics model by applying the principals of decision analysis and adaptive management (DAAM) to determine research and management priorities for American eel (Anguilla rostrata). A sensitivity analysis of the population dynamics model was used to identify critical uncertainities concerning eel population dynamics. The decision analysis was used to transform these uncertainties into hypotheses, and to evaluate, and rank the competing hypotheses. A value of information (VOI) analysis was employed to evaluate selected research projects and management experiments designed to test the predictions asrising from the hypotheses as ranked by the decision analysis. Results indicate that critical uncertainties for Lake Ontario/St.Lawrence River American eel stock outcomes include validity of the panmixis hypothesis, poorly understood rates of natural mortality and fishing mortality in yellow-phase eels, and yellow-phase eel habitat loss by way of dams interfering with upstream migration and recruitment to Lake Ontario. The VOI analysis demonstrates that a comprehensive collection of tissue and analysis of American eel genetic structure will address a critical uncertainty, i.e., it will determine if the mating of Lake Ontario/St.Lawrence River eels is non-random resulting in a population that is genetically isolated from other American eel stocks. and substantially reduce existing levels of uncertainty associated with existing assumptions about panmixis and it's role in determining population outcomes.